With the vote for Scottish Independence just one month away businesses are starting to raise concerns on what the impact could be.
According to the Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC) found that 8 per cent of firms had definite plans to move away from Scotland if it voted to leave the UK, whilst a further 10 per cent said they were considering moving away if this was the case.
Just under half of the 759 businesses surveyed, 49 per cent, said they would change their strategy if Scotland became independent, with almost a quarter, 24 per cent, stating they had already changed a business decision as a result of the debate about the country’s future.
Standard Life, employs around 5,000 staff in Edinburgh, stated that it has already started to register new entities in England ready to shift its operations south of the Border should the union break apart.
Alex Salmond has stated, quite rightly, that companies will not want to leave Scotland…unless they have to. But has the commercial realities been underestimated?
The unanswered questions over Scotland’s currency, its membership of the European Union, its monetary system, financial services regulation and tax have combined to create a high level of uncertainty for Scottish companies. The currency is key.
Westminster politicians have stated that if Scotland votes yes, it can’t keep the pound. Salmond has re, torted: “Yes, we can.”
The nationalists have also touted a Plan B of “sterlingistation” – keeping the pound unilaterally, as Panama and Ecuador use the US dollar. The European Union currently requires new members to have a track record of a stable currency.
Currently the polls are suggesting that Scotland will reject independence in the referendum, and remain in the UK but of course there is always a chance that polls are wrong, or will change before the vote and Scotland and the rest of the UK will part ways…time will tell. Just this morning it was revealed that nearly half of Scots, 47 per cent, surveyed in the Scottish Social Attitudes survey thought that independence would increase sense of pride in their country, compared to 40 percent who thought it would not make a difference and just six per cent would feel less proud.
However, 38 per cent thought that independence would make Scotland’s voice in the world either a “little” or a “a lot” weaker compared to the 33 per cent who thought it would be stronger and 22 per cent who felt it would make no difference.
Meanwhile a little closer to home, The Journal is bringing together a panel of experts to discuss how changes in Scotland could affect the North East economy. I look forward to attending and will report back with more insights from the regions stance.